As life expectancy continues to increase and the ratio of adults of working age to the population aged 65+ (old age support ratio) goes into decline, new research by Les Mayhew, Professor of Statistics at Cass Business School, examines the significance of the impact of these demographic changes. [asset=29|right]

Increasing longevity and the economic value of healthy ageing and working longer, investigates the economic challenges of an ageing UK population and considers it to be at a demographic crossroad: the number of workers to the number of young and old people peaked in 2007 and is now in decline. The report, commissioned by the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit, suggests that the downside of getting outcomes 'wrong' - doing nothing based on current trajectories - could result in economic stagnation, but it also estimates the potential economic benefits of getting outcomes 'right' through the period of accelerated ageing.

Professor Les Mayhew comments: "The evidence for pursuing an alternative more healthy or active 'ageing trajectory' is compelling. If increases in healthy life expectancy and working life expectancy are able to keep pace with life expectancy, the future looks brighter and quantified estimates of the difference this could make are given. However, the analysis begs the question of what actions need to be followed in order to ensure that it will happen as conjectured."

Unusually for studies of this kind the study focuses on three kinds of expectancy to build its case: life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and working life expectancy. A change in any one of these has important economic implications. Some of the key findings include: