As some of us in the West sit in the wreckage of the fallout of 'slash and
burn' cuts resulting from the post-2008 financial sector induced mess, we may
cast increasingly admiring glances to parts of Asia that weathered the economic
storm so much better. Indeed, even the commonly portrayed 'sick economy' of
Japan expanded as its fastest rate for 20 years, by a very respectable 3.9% in
2010. This performance was dwarfed by China's eye watering 10.3% growth or
Singapore's blistering record 14.7% in 2010. Japan's nominal gross domestic
product of $5,474 billion in 2010 compared to China's $5,879 billion confirmed
what many have already known since the second quarter of 2010 - that China has
displaced Japan, after four decades, as the second biggest economy in dollar
terms. In purchasing power parity terms China has been 'Number 2' for years,
the new "Asian Tiger" economy.
What key issues stem from this accession? First, the causes of growth and
its sustainability is debated. Much has been underpinned by low labour costs
and "perspiration not inspiration" (as Krugman put it) based on increases in
investment and employment. These are not sustainable and once spare labour is
used up and capital per worker reaches rich country standards, diminishing
returns and slower growth will follow.