This paper contrasts the forecasting performance of three time series models
for three very small frontier equity markets and one merging market in Africa.
In the light of proposed regional equity market integration this study reveals
potential benefits from diversification to South African investors from Namibia
while Swaziland and Mozambique markets remain segmented. The evidence suggests
that the CAPM with GARCH representation of errors outperforms the standard
GARCH in capturing information. It also sheds light on the higher transactions
costs faced by rational investors in Swaziland and Mozambique through the
substantially higher conditional variance present in these markets.