Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market

Recent literature on the accuracy of forecasting in financial markets reveals contradictory results. These discrepancies can be attributed to the differences in forecasting environments as well as the differences in forecaster expertise that are employed by the researchers.

Updated: 22/09/2011
Comments:
Views: 4,916

An exploratory analysis of the portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices

This study reports the results of an experiment that examines (1) the effects of forecast horizon on the performance of probability forecasters, and (2) the alleged existence of an inverse expertise effect, i.e., an inverse relationship between expertise and probabilistic forecasting performance.

Updated: 22/09/2011
Comments:
Views: 4,794

Behavioural finance: quo vadis?

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance

Behavioural finance endeavours to bridge the gap between neoclassical finance and cognitive psychology. Now an established field, behavioural finance looks at the investors' decision making formula as well as at their behaviour, which in turn sheds light on the observed departures from the traditional finance theory. The paper provides an overarching view of the behavioural finance area.

Updated: 10/02/2015
Comments:
Views: 7,279

Behavioural finance: quo vadis?

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance

Behavioural finance endeavours to bridge the gap between neoclassical finance and cognitive psychology. Now an established field, behavioural finance looks at the investors' decision making formula as well as at their behaviour, which in turn sheds light on the observed departures from the traditional finance theory. The paper provides an overarching view of the behavioural finance area.

Updated: 10/02/2015
Comments:
Views: 7,279

Real and financial sector returns, the IMF, and the Asian crisis

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance
Industry:
Banking

This paper examines the impact of International Monetary Fund (IMF) announcements programs on different sectors of the economy.

Updated: 22/09/2011
Comments:
Views: 4,523

Capital structure and debt maturity in Europe: the role of integration and FDI

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance

We investigate capital structures and debt maturities of firms in Europe. Europe is different from the rest of the world as major European economies have bank-based financial systems and European emerging markets are integrating with them through accession.

Updated: 22/09/2011
Comments:
Views: 5,612

Capital structure and debt maturity in Europe: the role of integration and FDI

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance

We investigate capital structures and debt maturities of firms in Europe. Europe is different from the rest of the world as major European economies have bank-based financial systems and European emerging markets are integrating with them through accession.

Updated: 22/09/2011
Comments:
Views: 5,612

The impact of SEC litigation on firm value

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance
Industry:
Banking

This paper examines the effect of the announcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) legal enforcement actions. The results indicate that SEC lawsuits have a negative effect on share price.

Updated: 22/09/2011
Comments:
Views: 4,455

The UK crisis of 2008: what is real and what is behavioural?

Author(s):

Gulnur Muradoglu

Topic:
Finance
Industry:
Banking

This paper is about the crisis of 2008 in the UK. I first discuss the triggers of the crisis in the UK, then go over the immediate reactions to it in the form of short term policies and conclude with a discussion of long term policies.

Updated: 25/12/2014
Comments: 7
Views: 5,034