Author's profile

Richard Verrall
Cass Business School

Background

Professor of Actuarial Statistics, Faculty of Actuarial Science and Insurance.Richard Verrall has been at City University since 1987. He is an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries (1999), an Associate Editor of the British Actuarial Journal, the North American Actuarial Journal and Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, and a Principle Examiner for the Actuarial Profession.

Author articles

  • Our previous academic research into Double Chain Ladder demonstrated how the classical chain ladder technique can be broken down into separate components. In this paper, we continue our investigation of the double chain ladder, and illustrate a simple way to include prior knowledge of severity inflation and future zero claims into the framework of the model.

    13/05/2013 | 1,757
  • This paper proposes a stochastic model for loss reserving based on incremental reported claim numbers and paid amounts, and which serves to predict Reported But Not Settled (RBNS) and Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) claims separately. The paper takes the approach of building a model for aggregate paid claims from basic principles at the level of individual data. The research suggests that the use of the aggregated counts data can improve reserving accuracy.

    02/05/2013 | 1,967
  • This paper presents an extension to the model for forecasting outstanding claims liabilities, formulated by Verrall et al. (2010). The resulting model is closely related to the chain ladder method. So close in fact, it is possible to produce exactly the same results, if a particular choice is made about the way the estimates are obtained. This raises the question of why a new method is necessary. This research puts forward several answers.

    15/11/2013 | 4,305 | 2
  • The estimate of outstanding liabilities is of immense importance to non-life insurance companies. The task of estimating this number is frequently left to actuaries. This paper introduces a number of new methodologies and approaches to estimating outstanding liabilities in non-life insurance, and invites greater participation from operational research statisticians in improving research into the matter.

    10/06/2013 | 4,580
  • The title is both a statement and a question, and in the talk you will find a list of things that are wrong with the chain ladder technique but also a question asking whether it is so bad after all.

    22/09/2011 | 15,500
  • Claims reserves are held by insurance companies so that they have sufficient funds to pay claims when they are submitted by policyholders. In general insurance, insurance policies usually last for a year; the policyholder pays an upfront premium and then expects any claims to be met - no matter when they are made. The problem for insurers is that there is often a delay before the claims are arrive, and then a further delay before they are paid.

    24/01/2013 | 15,113
  • Banking

    Bayesian networks is an emerging tool for a wide range of risk management applications, one of which is the modeling of operational risk.

    22/09/2011 | 4,305