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In the first part of the paper, we consider the wide range of extrapolative stochastic mortality models that have been proposed over the last 15-20 years. A number of models that we consider are framed in discrete time and place emphasis on the statistical aspects of modelling and forecasting. We discuss how these models can be evaluated, compared and contrasted. We also discuss a discrete-time market model that facilitates valuation of mortality-linked contracts with embedded options. We then review several approaches to modelling mortality in continuous time. These models tend to be simpler in nature, but make it possible to examine the potential for dynamic hedging of mortality risk. Finally, we review a range of financial instruments (traded and over-the-counter) that could be used to hedge mortality risk. Some of these, such as mortality swaps, already exist, while others anticipate future developments in the market.

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Updated: 05/09/2010 | Comments: 0 | Rating: Not yet rated | Views: 104

This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multi-period-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The study also finds that density forecasts that allow for uncertainty in the parameters of the mortality model are more plausible than forecasts that do not allow for such uncertainty.

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Updated: 05/09/2010 | Comments: 0 | Rating: Not yet rated | Views: 119

This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy. The article also illustrates how longevity fan charts can be used to stress-test longevity outcomes.

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Updated: 04/09/2010 | Comments: 0 | Rating: Not yet rated | Views: 140

This paper examines the impact of interest-rate risk and longevity risk on the distribution of annuity prices in the distant future. To do so, the paper uses a computationally efficient algorithm that simulates the state variables out to the end of the horizon period and then uses a Taylor series approximation to compute approximate annuity prices at the end of that period. Illustrative results suggest that annuity prices are likely to rise considerably, but are also quite uncertain. These findings have some unpleasant implications for future pensioners and those who will have to look after them.

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Updated: 05/09/2010 | Comments: 0 | Rating: Not yet rated | Views: 112

Many people delay joining a pension plan until well into their working lives. We use a stochastic simulation model to show the cost of this delay in terms of the higher pension contributions that must eventually be paid to ensure an adequate retirement income. We find the levels of contributions required for individuals who start saving late are so high it is questionable whether they are affordable for anyone not on a high income. We also analyse the cost in terms of reduced pension of an interrupted labour market history, such as that experienced by someone who leaves work for a period to bring up a family.

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Updated: 05/09/2010 | Comments: 0 | Rating: Not yet rated | Views: 88